COASTAL Promontory Ward Councillor Scott Rae has welcomed the electoral boundary changes for the South Gippsland Shire Council announced by the Victorian Electoral Commission this week.
But he acknowledges there’s a certain amount of self-interest in his view.
“The review is conducted by the VCE. That’s what they do. As councillors we don’t have a role in it but it’s good news for me anyway,” said Cr Rae this week.
“Previously, I was on the boundary, a stone’s throw from the ward I represent. Now I live well inside the boundary.
“But effectively, there’s not a lot of difference for me. I was already fielding calls on agricultural issues from the Meeniyan, Dumbalk and Stony Creek areas and get out around Port Welshpool, Welshpool, Toora, Foster and along the coast quite a bit.
“There’s the same mix of people and issues across the whole area.
“But changing the boundaries so they are more balanced is the work of the VCE. They’re the experts on that and we accept what they have come up with.”
It’s now all eyes on the next election in October 2024 and especially the candidates that might ultimately put their hands up, with some of the members of the old guard, those sacked in June 2019, showing signs of running again for office.
Absentee property and homeowners, especially those with holiday homes and weekenders along the coast of Coastal Promontory Ward, including at Sandy point and Venus Bay, have in the past week been reminded to re-enrol to vote.
Estimated number of voters in each ward (although this might change with absentee enrolments prior to the October 2024 elections):
- Coastal-Promontory (area 1,843km2) 12,773 voters plus 24.01% from average
- Strzelecki (865km2) 9,376 voters, minus 8.97% from average
- Tarwin Valley(600km2) 8,752 voters, minus 15.03% from average
Total voters 30,901, average 10,300.
What the VCE said
Here’s is the Victorian Electoral Commission’s response to the boundary review in the South Gippsland Shire Council:
After considering the model presented in the preliminary report, the requirements of the Act and public submissions, the VEC has chosen to put forward the model found in the preliminary report with no further adjustments as the VEC’s recommended model.
Constructing sensible ward boundaries for this council was challenging due to the concentrated populations in the towns of Leongatha and Korumburra. Coupled with the sparse distribution of the population throughout the centre of the shire, this severely limited the VEC’s ability to create strong ward boundaries, while adhering to the legislated +/-10% requirement.
Despite attempts by the VEC to model different options, suggestions to include Meeniyan in a northern ward were unfeasible because of this requirement. Indeed, neither of the proposals provided in submissions satisfied the requirement for all wards to be within the +/-10% deviation range.
Another key challenge to making sensible boundary adjustments was the high prevalence of current council-enrolled voters found mostly in the south along the coastline, with notable concentrations present around Venus Bay and Sandy Point. This further limited the options for creating sensible ward boundaries.
Adjusted numbers post-COVID
There was criticism from submitters of the forecast data used by the VEC, particularly in the south where larger concentrations of non-resident electors are found, and it was argued that the COVID-19 pandemic might have distorted population data generated from the 2021 Census. It should be noted that the VEC uses bespoke, up-to-date population and forecast data provided by informed decisions (.id), which factors in population changes related to the events surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite best efforts there remains a risk that some wards may remain or move outside +/-10% by the time of the 2024 election, which is always present during any ward boundary review program. In the recommended model, the northern boundary of Coastal-Promontory Ward now follows the Tarwin River and Tarwin River East Branch for almost the entire length, with small deviations from the river in the east using roads, trails, and property boundaries.
This was deemed a good outcome when considering the prominent nature of the river in the area, which presents as a strong and easily recognisable boundary.
The VEC also notes that most boundaries between the current Strzelecki and Tarwin Valley wards would remain in place in the recommended model, with only very minor adjustments near Leongatha. This too was considered a good outcome as electors would likely be familiar with these boundaries, which includes the use of Tarwin Valley River-West Branch, roads, and property boundaries. Local council ward boundary review.
The VEC acknowledges feedback that shifting the Coastal-Promontory Ward boundaries further north would result in some communities that might have less in common with the coastal area of the shire being included in a ward with areas like Wilsons Promontory, Venus Bay, and Sandy Point. The adjustment means that the more central towns like Meeniyan, Stony Creek and Dumbalk would now be contained within the southern Coastal-Promontory Ward. It was noted in public feedback that this change might add to councillor workloads in Coastal Promontory Ward, which already has unique challenges owing to the strong tourist industry and a high concentration of non-resident electors in the area.
While the VEC acknowledges the potential drawbacks of these adjustments, including increased councillor workloads, they are necessary to rebalance all wards to adhere to the +/-10% requirement. Of all the boundary change options considered throughout this review, the recommended model impacted a minimal number of voters, with 2,800 voters (or approximately 9%) changing wards (based on current enrolments). Coastal-Promontory Ward would gain 2,796 currently enrolled voters, with 1,598 transferred from Tarwin Valley Ward and 1,198 transferred from Strzelecki Ward. An additional 4 voters change from Strzelecki Ward to Tarwin Valley Ward.
Of the various options considered throughout the review, the recommended model is the most stable for the purposes of adhering to the +/-10% requirement during the 2024 local government elections and has a reasonable chance of remaining within legislated deviations for the 2028 elections.
While the VEC acknowledges there are both potential benefits and drawbacks for this recommended model, it considers the boundary adjustments of this model to have the best potential to promote fair and equitable representation for voters in South Gippsland Shire Council while also complying with the requirements of the Act. It should be noted that due to the high and variable population growth across the council area, as well as upcoming changes to council voting entitlements, it was necessary to set some current ward deviations outside +/-10% to increase the likelihood of ward deviations being within the +/-10% requirement at the time of the 2024 election.
Despite best efforts, the VEC acknowledges that, due to the volatility of population growth as well as the uncertain impacts of changes to council voting entitlements under the Act, that there remains a risk that some wards may remain or move outside +/-10% by the time of the 2024 election.
