WHEN the State and National media is analysing what the government will look like they speculate on the possible gains and losses of the two parties and then look at the role the current independents will play in a likely minority Government.
But one of the most marginal seats in Victoria is our seat of Monash. Until the last election, Monash was a safe Liberal seat held by Russell Broadbent forever! Last election a community representative Independent, Deb Leonard, “a teal”, got 11 per cent of the primary vote, making Monash one of the most marginal seats in Victoria with a 2.5 per cent margin. But I have not seen it, or her, featured in any mainstream media analysis.
This election Russell, just deselected, is running as an “independent” against the liberal candidate he lost to, and as such has also opened the door for the Nats to throw in a candidate. That split the right vote three ways. Labor, even with Green preferences, were not able to break into that major Liberal vote.
Deb looks likely to more than double her vote meaning on preferences between a fragmented right and low-performing Labor and Green vote she is looking a real potential for this seat.
But this is not covered because it’s the country, not a high profile candidate, just an honest, young, successful local lawyer, embedded in her community, who cares about our environment and a passion to do politics better.
But you see it’s not just that she may win, it’s that if she does the Liberals will lose another seat in Victoria and the seats that are being chased and discussed in the city are irrelevant, because on current polling that means we will have a Labor minority government that will have to work with Independents from the City and the Country – like Indi and potentially here in Monash.
And why is that good? Back to our new Liberal candidate, Mary Aldred, a good local person, but she is supporting Nuclear as the climate change solution, she is supporting Dutton dog whistling on Aboriginal flags and acknowledgement of country and the stopping immigration (not sure how we will pick our fruit or staff our cafes and restaurants), supporting the role back of a tax reduction for all, over a smaller fuel tax deduction. I don’t believe she thinks any of these are right or valuable but she will tow the party line.
The reason we will most likely have a minority government is because I think we want the people who represent us to do what is best for their community and to speak truthfully about that in Government. Monash may get that voice in Parliament for the first time, and there may be a minority government that will have to listen.
So our city media should be watching Monash and we in Monash should be thinking very carefully about our vote and who we preference because this time it could make a really big difference!
Nicolas Frances Gilley MBE, Phillip Island
