THE die is cast in the race for the Federal Electorate of Monash with the Liberals’ Mary Aldred and former Liberal-turned-independent Russell Broadbent both encouraging their supporters to effectively put independent candidate Deb Leonard last on their how to vote cards.
It’s nothing personal.
The Liberals are preferencing ‘Teal’ candidates second last, only ahead of the Greens’ candidates, in other seats where Teal independents have a strong chance of winning including Zoe Daniel in Goldstein and Dr Monique Ryan in Kooyong, although in that hotly-contested seat the Liberals’ Amelia Hamer is encouraging voters to put Ms Ryan 5th, D Vader (David not Darth) TOP 6th and the Greens’ Jackie Carter 7th.
But the decision by Mr Broadbent and Ms Aldred to encourage voters not to preference Ms Leonard, and effectively exchange preferences themselves could be crucial in the final analysis.
Whichever one of Ms Aldred or Mr Broadbent gets the higher first preference vote and collects enough preferences along the way will get the benefit of conservative votes flowing their way in the count, while the decision to “gang up” on Ms Leonard may make her task of winning even harder.
Her path to victory may have to come through getting more preferences than Labor’s Tully Fletcher, a hard ask given the “rusted on” first preference vote for Labor was almost 25% in 2022.
Leaving that prospect open is Tully Fletcher's how to vote card where Deb Leonard will get the second preference of Labor voters if Mr Fletcher is ultimately counted out when the votes are tallied on election night. Russell Broadbent is number 3 on Tully Fletcher's recommendations, ahead of Legalise Cannabis Party candidate David O'Reilly, the Greens' Terence Steele and Mary Aldred 6.
Of course, how to vote cards are only a guide for voters.
They can decide how to vote according to their own preferences.
Ms Leonard said this week that the how to vote card agreement reached between Mr Broadbent and Ms Aldred was an indication they were feeling threatened by her campaign.
“It’s disappointing to see that the Liberals and Russell Broadbent have done deals with extreme right-wing parties such as One Nation and Clive Palmers party. Clearly, they would rather do backroom deals to secure power than concentrate on what is best for our region,” Ms Leonard said this week.
“I am trusting voters to make their own decisions on who to preference.
“I am asking voters to put a 1 next to my name and then number the rest of the boxes in the order of their choice, thinking about who will put our community’s best interests first.
“And I remind voters they do not have to follow what it says on anyone’s how to vote card,” she said.
Ms Leonard is not putting out a how to vote card, apart from urging voters to give her their number 1 vote and to number the boxes according to their own preference.
It had been expected that Mr Broadbent would encourage voters to preference Ms Leonard ahead of the Liberals’ Mary Aldred after he was passed over for preselection by the party in November 2023 and turned independent.
But an arrangement whereby Mr Broadbent secured the preferences of other minor party candidates, ahead of Ms Aldred, is believed to be behind his decision to support Ms Aldred ahead of Ms Leonard.
Early voting starts Tuesday
All will be revealed when voters go to the polls from 8.30am this Tuesday, April 22 when early voting centres open.
You can vote at these locations from this Tuesday, May 22.
- Wonthaggi Senior Citizens Club, 46-50 Murray Street, Wonthaggi
- Phillip Island Masonic Lodge, 92 Church Street Cowes
Opening hours
- Tuesday, April 22 – Thursday, April 24 8.30am–5.30pm
- Saturday, April 26 - 9am–4pm
- Monday, April 28 – Thursday, May 1 8.30 am–5.30pm
- Friday, May 2 8.30am–6pm
All early voting centres will be closed on Easter Monday, April 23, and Anzac Day, Friday, April 25.